It is that time of year when everyone does a mock draft, I feel obliged to do the same. Call it peer pressure or just the anticipation of actually nailing a pick or two.
In the meantime, be sure to check out the 2022 Consensus Big Board I put together!
1. Jaguars: Travon Walker, edge rusher, Georgia.
The Jags are going to take Walker or Hutch, and the betting markets indicate it’s leaning towards the upside of Walker.
Continue reading “2022 NFL Mock Draft”For those of you who were not aware of it’s existence, I compiled a “consensus big board” for the 2021 NFL Draft. Rather than looking at a big board from a single source, this “consensus board” calculated the average big board ranking from 14 of the biggest names, which included the following:
The resulting product was the following distribution visualization and the consensus ranking of each draft prospect:
I’m honestly getting real jealous seeing everyone and their brother posting mock expansion drafts for the Seattle Kraken. I’m a draft junkie at heart, which is why I waste time every year on researching college prospects for the NFL draft. I’m going to approach this one a little differently. This is because unlike an entry draft (where anything can happen) or ‘nam (there are rules), that only one team is doing the drafting and they have to take little things into consideration like the salary cap (*cough* Tampa Bay *cough*).
Here’s how this is going to unfold. First, let’s break down which players the Kraken have a “serious interest” in taking. This is from a variety of official and unofficial sources, all of which can be taken with a grain of salt. Second, we are going to look at the no-brainer locks (which of course could change if the team bribes Seattle to take someone else). Third, we are going to talk about the teams that don’t have anything useful to offer. Lastly, we are going to examine the real tough choices that are going to define the course of the draft. Just to be clear, this isn’t what I think Seattle should do, but rather what I think they will do. Strap yourself in!
Serious Interest
While it was rumored before today, it looked like Seattle has locked-in a starting/platoon goaltender. Since he was an unrestricted free agent from Florida, he will count against their expansion draft selection. 1 down, 29 more to go!
2. CHI: Nikita Zadorov (D)
I would rather have Calvin de Haan over Zadorov, but who am I? Zadorov checks the “physical” boxes (6’6″, 235 lbs) that GMs like to have on the blue line and there’s this…
3. CAR: Jake Bean (D)
I really, really, really want them to take Nino Niederreiter here. Although, there’s some serious rumblings about Jake Bean being the preferred choice for Ron Francis. Just look at his comps –
Now that we have a goaltender and 2 defensemen, let’s move on to the obvious and easy choices.
No-Brainer Picks
4. CGY: Mark Giordano (D)
There’s no need to beat a dead horse on this pick. Giordano is perfect captain material, plays 20+ minutes a night, boasts positives in offensive and defensive GAR/xGAR and has a manageable contract. He’s your top pairing LD until further notice.
5. CBJ: Max Domi (C, LW)
Domi has had some problems finding his groove. He was traded from MTL to CBJ for Josh Anderson and then left exposed in the expansion draft. With the right pieces around him, he could really shine – Jack Han gets it:
6. BUF: Colin Miller (D)
This pick is indicative of just how few enticing options Buffalo has to offer. There is no way they take the bait on Jeff Skinner or Kyle Okposo. Maybe they fall in love with Girgensons? However, I doubt it. Miller gives you a third-pairing RD or trade bait.
7. DET: Troy Stecher (D)
Good right-handed defensemen are hard to come by and Stecher is well-rounded in oGAR (1.4) and dGAR (2.5). I could see SEA sniffing around Namestnikov and Svechnikov, but only Stecher gives you maximum value with the pick.
8. MTL: Brett Kulak (D)
You were probably expected a different no-brainer selection, but Carey Price makes too much money to even enter into this conversation. The same can be said for Shea Weber. Drouin didn’t even play this season and while Byron is an analytics darling, his production isn’t worth the contract (3.4m) given his age (32). If I’m Ron Francis, I’m working the phones with UFA Tomas Tatar and using that as my selection.
9. NSH: Nick Cousins (LW, C)
Cousins took a tiny step back this past season in defensive efficiency, but still had an overall GAR of 5, won more than 50% of faceoffs and outperformed his contract (1.5m) for the fourth consecutive year. Plug him into the 3C and forget it. Calle Jarnkrok will garner some attention, but his performance has been much more volatile throughout his career.
10. NYI: Jordan Eberle (RW)
Yes, I know that Eberle is going to be 31 years old and gets paid 5.5 million for the next 3 years. If you think you’ll find a better deal in this expansion draft of a proven 1/2RW that makes under 7.5 million, I’ll wait. The dude can generate offense and pairing him with Domi or Gourde wouldn’t be fair.
11. PIT: Jason Zucker (LW)
I had Marcus Pettersson slotted in this selection the past few days, but finding a bone fide top-6 LW in this entry draft necessitates taking the power forward Zucker. He had a bad year this past season and that should be concerning, but I’m willing to bet it was an anomaly. Since breaking into the NHL in 2014, he’s only been a negative GAR player once. A change of scenery should help him rebound.
12. SJS: Ryan Donato (LW)
Here’s your bottom-6 LW. Radim Simek is interesting, but there’s just so many better left-handed defensemen available.
13. TBL: Yanni Gourde (C)
Here’s your 1C. Set it and forget it.
14. TOR: Jared McCann (LW, C) Alexander Kerfoot (C)
McCann was a member of the Leafs for less than a week. The Leafs traded for him as insurance against losing Kerfoot. Why would Seattle want Kerfoot when there’s a younger, cheaper and better version of him on the same roster? He has the ability to develop into a top-6 LW and cheap (2.94m) for another season. Then there’s this potential news:
Now that we’ve covered the obvious and linked players, the next set of teams don’t offer much in terms of value (right now), but could be a good way to build your future.
Can’t Mess This Up
15. ARI: Christian Fischer (RW)?
I had Adin Hill locked-in as the ‘Yotes pick for the past 2 months and then lo and behold they traded him to San Jose. Fisher played for Arizona this past season and I have no idea who half these guys are…
16. BOS: Jeremy Lauzon (D)?
This is a total crapshoot. Do they take a proven commodity in Kase or Ritchie or a prospect in Lauzon or Zboril? Maybe they grab a defensive forward and penalty-killing center in Curtis Lazar? I have no clue, maybe they sign Halak tomorrow to platoon with Driedger and spare us the drama.
17. COL: Joonas Donskoi (RW) or J.T. Compher (RW, C)
Colorado offers a couple of RWs, which one would you rather have?
| oGAR | dGAR | xoGAR | xdGAR | PPO | SHD | |
| Player X | 9.9 | -1.2 | 8.9 | -0.3 | 4.5 | -0.3 |
| Player Y | 5.1 | 0.3 | 5.2 | -0.3 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
Donskoi (X) offers much higher offensive upside with some defensive liability, while Compher (Y) is slightly better defensively and worse offensively. On special teams, Compher kills penalties but isn’t much better at it than Donskoi. The only wildcard is contract and age, with Donskoi 3 years older and 400k more expensive. Pick your poison. Either way we’ve addressed one of our middle-6 RW holes.
18. DAL: Pass. This is bad. Fine…Let’s take Nicholas Caamano (LW) and hope he develops.
Dallas dangled Ben Bishop, but honestly I’d rather have (*gasps*) Holtby based on his age (34) and contract (4.9m until 2023).
19. EDM: Tyler Benson (LW), maybe?
There’s a lot of buzz surrounding Tyler Benson, but the Kraken could just as easily take Dominik Kahun. Benson hasn’t played much at all in the NHL and Kahun has been a surprisingly good offensive player (xGAR of 5.3, 5.5 and 4 his past three seasons).
20. LAK: Any RFA with a pulse, like Carl Grundstrom (LW)
The Kings are offering very little in terms of value. I’ve plugged all of their exposed players into Evolving Hockey’s Dashboard and they have 0 players with a positive overall GAR. As long as they don’t take Olli Maatta, I don’t think Seattle can go wrong with Brendan Lemieux (below replacement value), Andreas Athanasiou (good offensively, bad defensively) or Austin Wagner (average at best).
21. NJD: AHL Forward, like Nathan Bastian (RW)
Don’t be lured by Subban or Will Butcher. Just take Merkley, Studenic, Gignac or Bastian and they’ll play in the AHL next year.
22. NYR: Julien Gauthier (RW) or Colin Blackwell (C)?
The Rangers gave nothing up this expansion draft. Just take the AHL forward with a year left on their contract and be happy about it.
23. OTT: ???
Dadonov is a good scorer with a semi-reasonable contract (5m). Tierney is a decent bottom-6 center. Joshua Brown is a fine 6/7D. They also have some goaltenders (not Matt Murray) that would be interesting too.
24. VAN: Braden Holtby (G)
Full disclosure: I am a fan of Holtby, enough so that I have his sweater (and I only have 5 total in my collection). Ever since Mitch Koran left the Caps, Holtby just hasn’t been the same. But somehow the Canucks don’t really have anything else remotely enticing. He is only under contract for 1 more season and would be a serviceable 1B to serve with Driedger.
So for those of you keeping score:
| Zucker (PIT) | Gourde (TBL) | Eberle (NYI) |
| Domi (CBJ) | Donskoi (COL) | |
| Kerfoot (TOR) | ||
| Donato (SJS) | Cousins (NSH) | Fisher (ARI) |
| Benson (EDM) | Bastian (NJD) | |
| Grundstrom (LAK) | Gauthier (NYR) | |
| Caamano (DAL) |
| Giordano (CGY) | Stetcher (DET) |
| Zadorov (CHI) | |
| Miller (BUF) | |
| Lauzon (BOS) |
| Driedger (FLA) |
| Holtby (VAN) |
Just to recap: After sourcing all the confirmed, obvious and obscure selections, we’re down to the final-8 teams. We still need a top-6 LW, a middle-6 RW, at least 1 more RD/LD and a goaltender. Fortunately (or unfortunately), there’s a multitude of solutions to this Rubik’s cube.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
25. ANA: Kevin Shattenkirk (D) or Haydn Fleury (D)?
Henrique might be tempting, especially with scarcity at the center position. However, we got the position well-covered. I personally think Shattenkirk would be a safer selection. He is $2 million cheaper, contract expires a year earlier and is a good bottom-4 right-handed defensemen, which we do need. If they are thinking longer term, Haydn Fleury could be a future starter.
26. MIN: Kaapo Kahkonen (G) or Carson Soucy (LD)?
There’s an argument to be made for taking Victor Rask/Nick Njugstad (weak center options), Carson Soucy (6.5 GAR), or Kaapo Kahkonen. Kahkonen would be a goalie in the mix next season after Holtby is a free agent or traded at the deadline. I’ll circle back to this one later because the main event is…
27. PHI: OMG JVR (LW)
Philly offers some of the most intriguing options. Jakub Voraceck is still an elite playmaker. James van Riemsdyk is slightly cheaper (1.25m) with one less year on his contract. Shayne Gostisbehere could use a change of scenery and has top-4 star potential. Not to jump too far ahead of myself, but if the rumors of a pick-and-trade of Tarasenko are real, this makes this selection even more interesting. I’m not going to try and predict trades and take the highest priority position: LW.
28. STL: Vladimir Tarasenko (RW) or Vince Dunn (D)?
I’m agonizing over this selection because it is much harder than it looks. If Tarasenko wasn’t coming off 2 straight injury-plagued seasons, this wouldn’t be a choice at all (probably because he would have been protected). If I’m Seattle, I’m thoroughly vetting his injury history and if it looks clear, run the card to the (metaphorical) stage. Prior to the past 2 seasons, his GAR was 22.7, 13.6, 13.2, 13.9 and 10.9. If there’s question marks, Vince Dunn is a good consolation prize. He took a huge step backwards in offensive production this past season, but is still young (24) and worth a shot to rebound. Keep an eye on UFA Jaden Schwartz, if they sign him – and they could use a LW – this is all moot.
29. WSH: Conor Sheary (LW) or Nick Jensen (D)?
Nick Jenson has been criminally undervalued by the Caps and would give SEA some real options at right defense, including a trade. Sheary is a very cheap bottom-3 LW locked in for the next 2 seasons.
30. WPG: Mason Appleton (RW) or Dylan DeMelo (D)?
See above. Dylan DeMelo is the truth and well-rounded right-handed defensemen are a valuable commodity. I could see them going either way here, but I would be shocked to see both Jensen and DeMelo taken, unless they have a buyer lined up.
So here’s my final predictions:
| Zucker (PIT) | Gourde (TBL) | Eberle (NYI) |
| JVR (PHI) | Domi (CBJ)* | Tarasenko (STL)* |
| Sheary (WSH) | Kerfoot (TOR) | Donskoi (COL) |
| Donato (SJS) | Cousins (NSH) | Fisher (ARI) |
| Benson (EDM) | Bastian (NJD) | |
| Grundstrom (LAK) | Gauthier (NYR) | |
| Caamano (DAL) |
| Giordano (CGY) | DeMelo (WPG) |
| Zadorov (CHI) | Stetcher (DET) |
| Kulak (MTL) | Miller (BUF)* |
| Lauzon (BOS) | Shattenkirk (ANA) |
| Brown (OTT)* |
| Driedger (FLA) |
| Holtby (VAN) |
| Kahkonen (MIN) |
This roster is barely cap compliant with only $83,334 dollars to spare. They could easily clear $10 million in cap with a few simple trades and their RFAs (Benson, Donato, Caamano, Bean and Zadorov) aren’t going to be super pricey to re-sign. Tarasenko, just to name one, is a luxury pick that should draw quite a bit of attention. If you think this team looks dangerous already, don’t forget they have the #2 overall pick in the 2021 NHL draft. They should be able to land Matthew Beniers or William Eklund, which would boost the center spot and provide some insurance if Domi doesn’t work out.
Every year I engage in the tedious experiment of trying to predict the draft. After about the 4th pick in the draft, it becomes obvious that reading the tea leaves of NFL organizations is nearly impossible. Nevertheless, I’m going to torture myself once again by trying to outsmart the brain trusts of general managers.
I’m mocking 4 trades to take place in the first round. None of these are blockbuster deals that involve multiple firsts and mortgaging the future – I’ll leave that to the actual GMs. Moving up or down a few spots would seem advantageous when one considers who is picking next and who is still available. The trades are as follows:
ROUND 1
Round 1.1: Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)
Biggest needs: QB, WR, OT
There is really nothing to say here. Lawrence is going to be the #1 pick and that’s about the only sure thing this year.
Round 1.2: New York Jets – Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)
Biggest needs: QB, iOL, CB
Another predictable selection. Barring a Tunsil-esque revelation on draft day, Zach Wilson will be the Jets new franchise quarterback.
Round 1.3: San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)
Biggest needs: QB, CB, iOL
This is really when the draft begins. The ‘9ers certainly traded up to #3 for a QB, but the jury is out which one. I don’t know what to believe anymore, but the betting markets (and Kyle Shanny) seem enamored by Mac Jones, but the organization seems to prefer Lance. I’m going with Lance because of his upside.
Round 1.4: Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)
The Falcons are going to have an extremely difficult time finding a trade partner willing to offer enough to move up from #15 (Pats), #19 (WTF), #20 (Bears). The only team I think has enough draft capital to reasonably make a move is Denver at #9. There’s a ton of rumors this week about the Falcons moving Julio this off-season. Pitts would be his replacement.
Round 1.5: Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)
Biggest needs: Everything except QB
I’m caving on this selection. After having Penei Sewell mocked in sharpie to the Bengals for the last 3 months, I’m switching to Ja’Marr Chase. There’s way too much talk about reuniting Burrow and Chase and rekindling their chemistry while winning a national championship together at LSU.
Round 1.6: Miami Dolphins – Penei Sewell (OT, Oregon)
Biggest needs: OL, EDGE
This is a nightmare scenario for the Dolphins, who moved back and up again to #6 praying for either Pitts or Chase to fall to them. Here’s a consolation prize: a franchise left tackle to pair with Austin Jackson.
Round 1.7: Detroit Lions – Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)
Biggest needs: WR, LB, DB
Detroit lost their top two pass catchers this off-season. They replace one of them with Waddle AND collect some more draft capital in the process. Is Waddle the next Tyreek Hill? We know Goff isn’t Mahomes, but Detroit still has to give the guy some help on offense.
Round 1.8: TRADE FROM CAR to New England Patriots – Justin Fields (QB, OSU)
Biggest needs: QB, WR, S
The Patriots shock the world and actually move up in the draft…to select a QB of the future. After the free agent frenzy, the cupboard is pretty well stocked for the next few years. Unfortunately, it cost the Pats a lot of cap space, so finding a cheap option at QB is paramount.
Round 1.9: Denver Broncos – Micah Parsons (MLB, Penn State)
Biggest needs: QB, MLB, DT
After trading for Teddy Bridges, they address the other side of the ball.
Round 1.10: Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)
Biggest needs: DB, DT, EDGE
The Cowboys need help at all levels of their defense. Horn has the perfect skill set and attitude for the Cowboys.
Round 1.11: New York Giants – DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)
Biggest needs: OT, EDGE, CB
The Giants are huge wildcards with this selection. They could go in several directions – WR, EDGE, CB, S, OL – but I’m going to guess the selection is Parsons if he is still available. Gettleman seems to like him a lot and it would fill a massive need. Unfortunately, he’s gone in this mock so they settle for plan B: DeVonta Smith.
Round 1.12: Philadelphia Eagles – Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)
Biggest needs: WR, EDGE, CB
The Eagles traded back a month before the draft not knowing who would be available and have options. I can’t get a read on what they would do in this situation, but they can still get a decent WR at the top of the second round. I don’t know if this can be said about the CB class.
Round 1.13: Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater (OL, Northwestern)
Biggest needs: OT, EDGE, CB
The Chargers still need to fix their offensive line if they want to keep Herbert off the ground. The tackle position is especially weak with Trey Pipkins slotted as the starting LT.
Round 1.14: TRADE FROM MIN to Chicago Bears – Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)
Biggest needs: OL, CB, QB
The Vikings’ list of needs just keeps growing this off-season, especially after Jeff Gladney was arrested on a felony assault charge. In a year with so many needs, the Vikings are also missing a second round pick. I could see them moving back and dumping this pick, but I don’t know who makes sense to move up. In a rare inter-division trade, the Vikings get their 2nd rounder back while Chicago upgrades from Andy Dalton.
Round 1.15: TRADE FROM NE to Carolina Panthers – Christian Darrisaw (OT, Virginia Tech)
Biggest needs: OL, MLB, CB
The Panthers need to improve their line so Darnold doesn’t “see ghosts” as frequently.
Round 1.16: Arizona Cardinals – Alijah Vera-Tucker (iOL, USC)
Biggest needs: CB, RB, iOL
This is not an ideal situation for the Cardinals, who really need a CB to replace Patrick Peterson. With Surtain II and Horn off the board, they might consider trading back or dealing with it in the next round. Their O-Line isn’t bad, but they could use someone with the skill set of Vera-Tucker, who is a great fit at iOL. However, I don’t think they leave CB to chance and draft Farley, who would be a top-10 pick if he didn’t have a rash of recent injuries.
Round 1.17: Las Vegas Raiders – Teven Jenkins (OT, Oklahoma State)
Biggest needs: iOL, CB, LB
The Raiders just have so many needs, it’s just hard to predict what they are going to do. They lost 3/5 of their starting offensive line this off-season, so I would imagine they might want to do something about that.
Round 1.18: Miami Dolphins – Kwity Paye (EDGE, Michigan)
Biggest needs: OL, CB, DT
The Dolphins will draft a defender with this second selection and EDGE is a massive need. Paye is one of my favorite players in this draft, ESPN actually did an article about his life.
Round 1.19: Washington Football Team – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)
Biggest needs: QB, OT, LB
The Washington Football team bolsters a defense that is already elite. Adding the versatile LB Owusu-Koramoah isn’t even fair. This dude can ball and embodies the trend of modern-day linebackers that have sideline-to-sideline speed and coverage skills.
Round 1.20: TRADE CHI to Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips (EDGE, Miami)
Biggest need: EDGE, CB, iOL
The pass rush of Minnesota has taken a major step backwards and Hunter’s future in Minnesota is questionable at best. This could end up being the steal of the draft if Phillips can stay healthy.
Round 1.21: TRADE FROM IND to Cleveland Browns – Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)
Biggest needs: EDGE, CB, DT
The Browns have 2 high-priority needs: EDGE and CB. Since they signed Clowney, CB becomes a higher priority need. If they stay put at #26, there’s a good chance that Newsome and Farley are gone, leaving them with the undersized Asante Samuel, Jr. Since the draft is in Cleveland this year, I expect them to do something interesting, so might as well part ways with an extra 3rd rounder and move up to address the cornerback need.
Round 1.22: Tennessee Titans – Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)
Biggest needs: CB, WR, OT
The Titans don’t have many needs, but CB and WR are the weakest links and they should be strongly considering CB Greg Newsome II or WR Rashod Bateman. With Newsome gone one selection earlier, it makes the decision much easier. The Titans lost 3 of their top-5 receivers this off-season: Corey Davis (984 yards), Jonnu Smith (448 yards) and Adam Humphries (228 yards). A.J. Brown needs some help and Bateman would be a welcome sight.
Round 1.23: New York Jets – Greg Newsome II (CB, Northwestern)
Biggest needs: iOL, CB, EDGE
After the Zach Wilson pick, this one has defense written all over it. They hired former SF Defensive Coordinator Salah as their new Head Coach. The pass defense is absolutely abysmal and Newsome would be a huge upgrade.
Round 1.24: Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)
Biggest needs: OL, RB, CB
The Steelers have been rumored to be targeting a running back in the first two rounds. While this feels like an overpay, Harris seems to have won over the Steelers coaching staff as the preferred running back. There isn’t an OT worth taking here, so I would be shocked if Harris isn’t the selection here.
Round 1.25: Jacksonville Jaguars – Christian Barmore (DT, Alabama)
Biggest needs: WR, OT, S
The Jags never really replaced Calais Campbell and have the luxury of drafting BPA here. They should also be considering Trevon Moehrig, but we’ll see if they want to invest in the secondary.
Round 1.26: TRADE FROM CLE to Indianapolis Colts – Azeez Ojulari (EDGE, Georgia)
Biggest needs: OL, EDGE
The Colts have to choose between Ojulari, who shouldn’t even still be available and Cosmi to protect their investment at QB. It wouldn’t surprise me if they traded back up in the second to get a franchise left tackle, but they won’t pass up on the pure speed rusher at #26.
Round 1.27: Baltimore Ravens – Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)
Biggest needs: WR, OL, EDGE
The Ravens get a gift with another first round selection. They promptly turn that selection into a player that has the attitude and fit for the Ravens defense. Collins may be a “small school” prospect, but there’s nothing small about this man. At 270 lbs, he was a versatile piece at Tulsa – excelling at run stopping, coverage and pass rushing.
Round 1.28: New Orleans Saints – Trevon Moehrig (S, TCU)
Biggest needs: WR, CB
The Saints have Marcus Williams under the franchise tag and some serious salary cap concerns going forward. Moehrig would be a complementary piece this year and a potential replacement next year.
Round 1.29: Green Bay Packers – Kadarius Toney (WR, Florida)
Biggest needs: CB, WR
The Packers really only have 2 big needs: CB and WR. Even though they signed Kevin King, they are still looking for someone to pair with Jaire Alexander. While Asante Samuel Jr. would be appealing here, they need to finally give Rodgers some help. Toney has video game moves for a receiver, he would be a welcome sight on offence.
Round 1.30: Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau (EDGE, Miami)
Biggest needs: OL, EDGE, RB
Hughes and Addison are getting older and there’s really no downside to having a pass rush depth. This is a great situation because Rousseau hasn’t played football in over a year and easing him into the defense would be great for both parties.
Round 1.31: Baltimore Ravens – Terrace Marshall (WR, LSU)
Biggest needs: OL, EDGE
Terrace Marshall is a bigger WR (6’3″) with a great catch radius and can make contested plays on the ball. In other words, everything the Ravens need. This is a slam dunk pick if he is still available.
Round 1.32: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jayson Oweh (EDGE, Penn State)
Biggest needs: DT, EDGE
The Bucs don’t really need anything right now, but they could always use a future replacement for JPP.
Happy NHL Playoffs Eve!
If you haven’t checked out part 1 of the primer, you’re missing out on an exploration of NHL home ice advantage in the regular season v. playoffs. In part 2, I’m going to be exploring the relationship between regular season success and playoff success across the NHL, NBA and NFL. In other words, how much “parity” do we see between the playoffs and regular season? In this case, what I mean by “parity” is the relationship between regular season and playoff success. I capture this phenomenon by looking at the average regular season winning% of playoff teams in the NFL, NBA and NHL (data courtesy of hockey, baseball and football reference):
What does this mean? Since the NFL only has 12 total playoff teams compared to the 16 of the NBA and NHL, it is to be expected that the average NFL playoff team is well above average. However, when we compare the NHL and NBA over the past 18 years, the average NBA playoff team tended to be better than the average NHL playoff team – until 2012. This trend shifted quite drastically in 2012, with the average NHL playoff team outperforming the average NBA playoff team in the regular season.
What if we limit our scope from all playoff teams to the regular season winning% of conference finalists (the final-4):
While the NFL still reigns supreme with the highest average regular season winning% of their Conference Championship participants, they did fall below average twice in the past 18 years (2008 and 2010). Just to refresh your memory, the 2008 NFL NFC Championship featured the 9-6-1 Philadelphia Eagles and 9-7 Arizona Cardinals. That year, the final-4 boasted a combined 65% winning percentage, lowest in the league’s past 18 years, but still more than the average NHL Conference Finals team. Speaking of which, the NHL was below average (and at the bottom of the list) every season except 2012. This featured the (somewhat) anti-climatic Conference Finals that included two #1 seeds (Pittsburgh and Chicago), the 4th best team in the league (Boston) and Los Angeles. In other words, the NHL appears to have the most unpredictable outcomes in the playoffs of these three leagues. But wait there’s more…It’s time for the main event: The difference between regular season winning% of the average final-4 team relative to the average playoff team.
The impact of this chart is to identify the “parity” within each of the leagues by calculating the difference in regular season winning% of final-4 teams to their respective leagues’ average winning% of all playoff teams. There’s a few conclusions that we can draw from this chart: (1) The NBA is the most predictable sport in this regard. This should come as no surprise to anyone that follows basketball – the best teams seem to almost always advance to the conference finals, with 2 notable exceptions: 2006 and 2009. In 2006, while Detroit and Cleveland occupied the top-2 seeds in the East, there was a major shocker out west with the 8th seeded Warriors upsetting the Mavs in the first round. Something similar happened in 2009, with the top-seeded Cavs upset in the second round by Boston and the 2nd-seeded Mav’s getting dunked on (pun intended) by the Spurs in the first round. While a couple of 1/2/3 seeds being upset isn’t really that exciting for the NHL or NFL, for the NBA it’s the only evidence of relative unpredictability that we have. (2) The NHL has the most unpredictability in the playoffs of any sport. It is rare (like 2012) that successful regular season teams advance to the conference championship. On four different occasions (2009, 2011, 2013 and 2016), the average final-4 team was actually worse than the average NHL playoff team. The only other league to accomplish this feat was the NFL, who holds the record for most chaotic playoff of the past 18 years in 2008. (3) Speaking of the NFL, there’s a lot more variation than other sports, , which is a product of a single-elimination playoff format.
In sum: The NHL and NBA are more predictable (for very different reasons). The regular season is less predictive of a deep playoff run in the NHL and more so for the NBA. Whereas, the NFL is just a total crap shoot year-to-year. With 24 teams in the NHL Playoffs this year, we should actually expect some chaos based on what we’ve seen in previous seasons.
Welcome to Stanley Cup Playoffs Week!
Beginning on Saturday, August 1 at 12:00 PM EST, the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes kick off the insanity of this year’s COVID Olympics, also known as the Stanley Cup Playoffs. All games are being played at Rogers Place (Edmonton) and Scotiabank Place (Toronto), with Western teams playing at the former and Eastern teams at the latter. That means that only two teams will actually enjoy all the luxuries of “home ice advantage” – Toronto and Edmonton. The rules regarding home ice advantage will remain the same as any other season, with the higher seed afforded the benefits of “home ice advantage” in 4 games of the best-of-7 series (3 of the 5 in the first round).
These benefits include:
(1) Last change – The home team makes player substitutions after the visiting team between stoppages of play
(2) Faceoffs – The centre from the visiting team must put their stick on the ice first
(3) Rink familiarity
What are age curves? When do forwards and defense reach their prime? Which players have defied expectations? Find out the answers to these questions (and many more) on this episode of Ice Analytics. I will be joined on the Stat Chat by Matthew Klink, co-host of The Discussion Five Podcast to talk about the Detroit Red Wings.
Why were so many coaches fired this year compared to previous seasons? How did teams perform after they replaced their coach? Find out the answers to these questions on this episode of Ice Analytics. I will be joined on the Stat Chat by Isha Jahromi, co-founder of The Hockey Podcast Network and host of The Sota Pod.
I debuted the Annual Rate Charts (ARCs) on twitter over a month ago and since I’m unleashing the Tableau to the public, I wanted to ensure proper documentation was available.
You can find the link to the interactive Tableau Charts HERE!
What are Annual Rates Charts?
Annual Rate Charts (ARCs) are a way to measure the production and expected production of a player relative to their time on the ice. Production is quantified using the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) models from Evolving-Hockey. If you want an in-depth analysis of how GAR is calculated, documentation is available here. In short, GAR is a single number that captures the contribution of that player in different game situations. GAR is subdivided into several categories, including even strength offense & defense, power play, penalty kill, takeaways and faceoffs. The number for each player represents the number of goals more (positive) or less (negative) that a player contributions relative to a replacement-level player (by position).
Expected GAR (xGAR) is also a single number assigned to each player, which is calculated based on the on-ice performance of a player (including rates, quality, shooting and goaltending). This number is the expected number of goals more or less above replacement-level that the player should contribute, based on their on-ice actions. In other words, xGAR represents the performance of a player, while GAR represents the results of that performance. When I tested the relationship between these values, I find that xGAR captures approximately 86% of the variation in GAR, which is quite substantial for a model including human subjects.
Annual Rate Charts (ARCs) can be differentiated from many other publicly available visualizations using GAR and xGAR data as it is relative to the amount of time a player is on the ice. These rates can be differentiated from many other popular visualizations that display GAR data in aggregate form. There are strengths and weaknesses to both rate and aggregate data, but both are useful in their own way.
If you haven’t heard, the NFL dropped its schedule on Thursday, May 7th. Using the fantastic site playoff predictors, you can predict the outcome of EVERY. SINGLE. GAME. That’s exactly what I did. I won’t display the weekly results, but I will provide my predicted record for each team, based on nothing more than my gut.
| # | AFC North | 2020-21 Record | 2019-20 Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ravens | 11-5 | 14-2 |
| 6 | Steelers | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| 7 | Browns | 9-7 | 6-10 |
| 14 | Bengals | 5-11 | 2-14 |
The Ravens are bound to regress from last years’ historic season. The retirement of perennial pro-bowl guard Yanda will reverberate throughout the rushing and passing game. It won’t help that the rest of the division should improve as well. Every team in the AFCN seemingly improved this offseason, so the Ravens might not get as many “free wins” in the division this year.
Continue reading “NFL 2020-21 Predictions (as of May 10, 2020)”
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