2023 NFL Mock Draft

Is it almost May already? That means it’s mock draft season, baby!

Using my patented (not actually patented) consensus big board, I’m joining the ranks of millions of other armchair GMs and showing exactly why we aren’t working in an NFL front office.

1) Carolina Panthers (from Chicago): Bryce Young, QB (Alabama)

The Panthers move up and get their guy.

2) Houston Texans: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE (Alabama)

I don’t know what to believe and/or how much of this is smoke, but I’m really starting the buy the hype that Houston is going to roll the dice and wait on a QB.

3) Tennessee Titans (TRADE from Arizona Cardinals): C.J. Stroud, QB (OSU)

The Colts try to move up one spot but fail to prevent another team from leaping them and stealing their guy (*cough* Tennessee *cough*).

4) Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson, QB (Florida)

The Colts don’t get the guy they want, but the guy they need.

5) Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Jalen Carter, IDL (Georgia)

The Seahawks get possibly the best player in the draft by taking a chance on his character concerns.

6) Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB (Illinois)

The Lions don’t really have much of a long-term answer at CB, until now.

7) Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB (Oregon)

Any of the available players would be an upgrade, but upgrading the secondary would be the most impactful.

8) Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB (Texas)

I don’t know what NFL GMs think about spending a high pick on a running back, but if Bijan lives up to the hype, it doesn’t really matter what we think of this pick at the time.

9) Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Peter Skoronski, OT (N’western)

Local kid bolsters the O-line at any position.

10) Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Tyree Wilson, EDGE (Texas Tech)

As much as I want to manifest Bijan to the Eagles, their history of drafting trenches in the first makes me believe they will get Graham’s replacement.

11) Arizona Cardinals (TRADE from Tennessee Titans): Paris Johnson Jr., OT (OSU)

Arizona basically gets the guy they would have taken at #3 and a boatload of picks to boot.

12) Houston Texans (from Cleveland): Will Levis, QB (Kentucky)

The Texans bet on themselves and they somehow manage to come away with a QB at the end of the day.

13) Green Bay Packers* (from N.Y. Jets): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (OSU)

The Rodgers era has come to an end and every young QB’s best friend is a safety net.

14) New England Patriots: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE (Iowa)

The Pats are in a tough spot in a brutal division and could go in many different directions here, but I think they could use an upgrade across from Judon.

15) New York Jets* (from Green Bay): Broderick Jones, OT (Georgia)

The Jets need to protect their new investment.

16) Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB (PSU)

It feels a little high to draft Hooker here, and CB is their next biggest need.

17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Darnell Wright, OT (Tenn)

As much as drafting Joey Porter Jr. would be a feel good story, protecting Kenny P would make him feel even better.

18) Detroit Lions: Quentin Johnston, WR (TCU)

The Lions grab another weapon for Goff, hopefully this one can stay off DraftKings.

19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nolan Smith, EDGE (Georgia)

Tampa needs a lot of things, but taking a BPA pass rusher might be a good start.

20) Seattle Seahawks: Deonte Banks, CB (Maryland)

The Seahawks stay on defense and beef up the secondary.

21) Los Angeles Chargers: Myles Murphy, EDGE (Clemson)

As much as the Chargers could use another offensive weapon, Murphy is just too damn good to pass up.

22) Baltimore Ravens: Calijah Kancey, IDL (Pitt)

I’ve spent a lot of time giving this some thought: The Ravens are going to ultimately re-sign Peters, Lamar plays on the tag and then the only real immediate need is the interior of the defensive line.

23) Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR (USC)

The Vikings really do need a WR to replace Thelian; By hook or by crook they need to get one in the first 2 rounds.

24) Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Branch, S (Alabama)

Branch is super talented, but projects to be a nickel more than a safety, which is perfectly fine for the Jags, who could use either.

25) New York Giants: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL (Florida)

The Giants don’t have a ton of needs, so beefing up the interior of the line is worth a first.

26) Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE (Notre Dame)

Mayer has been compared to Jason Witten; He isn’t the most physically gifted player, but he blocks well and gets open.

27) Buffalo Bills: Zay Flowers, WR (Boston College)

I’m assuming they don’t get D-Hop, so they instead draft their own version of Tyreek Hill.

28) Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton Kincaid, TE (Utah)

The Bengals have an embarrassment of riches on offense and the rich get richer.

29) New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco through Miami and Denver): Bryan Bresee, IDL (Clemson)

The Saints could use any help they can get on the defensive line and it just so happens that one falls into their lap.

30) Mystery Team???? (TRADE with Philadelphia Eagles): Hendon Hooker, QB (Tenn)

I don’t know who it will be exactly (Washington? Minnesota? Vegas? Tampa Bay?), but someone will want that 5th year option and the Eagles aren’t desperate.

31) Kansas City Chiefs: Anton Harrison, OT (Oklahoma)

The Chiefs lost a couple of offensive tackles this off-season, so replacing them should be at the top of the list.


GAR and Cap (2018-2019): Defensemen (cont.)

Following up from the previous post here, which examined the best (and worst) GAR performers in each game situation, this article will examine defensemen value relative to cap hit. For more information on how GAR is calculated, please check out the introduction. Before delving into the nuances of player value, I present an illustration of the cap hit and GAR of all defensemen:

GAR per Dollar (D)

Continue reading “GAR and Cap (2018-2019): Defensemen (cont.)”

[NFL Draft 2019] Last-Minute Mock Draft

In a strange twist, rather than try to guess the selection (and be wrong most of the time), I am going to look at the potential available options for each team.

1. Arizona Cardinals

Option A: Kyler Murray, QB (OU)
Option B: Quinnen Williams, DT (Alabama)
Option C: Trade Down

After months of drama and speculation, this has got to be the biggest smokescreens (or non-smokescreens) in recent history. The Cardinals have so many holes in their roster that they should trade this pick to accumulate a collection of riches, but probably won’t. If they are able to trade Rosen for a late first/early second, while also acquiring their franchise QB, then this is as good as it gets. This is a matter of fit more than any other single factor. Even if Murray is objectively only slightly better than Rosen in a vacuum, the NFL isn’t a vacuum.

Continue reading “[NFL Draft 2019] Last-Minute Mock Draft”

2018 NFL Round 1 Draft Analysis

  1. Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)

Maybe he is the next Russell Wilson…or the next Johnny Manziel.  On second thought, the comparison between the two is the epitome of laziness for sports writers and analysts.  Sure they both have an attitude and have displayed emotion in a negative light, but Manziel was an overall train wreck off the field and a good athlete on the field.  I feel the desire to defend this pick against all the jersey burning haters out there.  Let me introduce the QBASE projections, which looks at collegiate production (completion percentage, yards per attempt and passing efficiency) relative to the quality of the defenses faced and offensive teammates around them.  QBASE projects NFL success in the first 3-5 years after entering the league.  Here is the breakdown of the top QB options for the Browns:

Continue reading “2018 NFL Round 1 Draft Analysis”

[NFL DRAFT 2018] One mock to rule them all…

This is the one and only mock for Stats Enforcer, compiled from a variety of sources (including analysts, advanced stats and personal bias).  I’m sure that about 10% of this mock draft will actually happen tonight, but it was a fun exercise nonetheless.

1. Cleveland Browns

Needs:  QB, CB, OT, DL

Sam Darnold (QB, USC)

Given the uncertainty of picks 2 and 3, the Browns have to take a QB here at #1 or risk not landing “the guy” they want.  If they were actually interested in trading down, I’m sure they would have already received the entire Bills stockpile of picks.  I personally believe that Darnold is locked in at #1.  At best, scouts have described his talents as comparable to Andrew Luck; at worst he has been compared to Matthew Stafford.  With the right developmental program, I think the Browns might actually have their QB of the future in Darnold.

Darnold was a four-star recruit out of high school.  He earned Pac-12 Offensive Freshmen of the Year award after leading the Trojans to a 9-1 record with over 3000 yards passing and 31 TDs.  Unfortunately, his sophomore year was more problematic, as Darnold struggled to find chemistry with his new WRs and offensive line protection.  Darnold is not without faults, including atrocious decision-making this past season, resulting in 22 total turnovers.  The Browns hope it was an anomaly and let him sit behind Tyrod for at least one season. Continue reading “[NFL DRAFT 2018] One mock to rule them all…”