NFL Mock Draft 2021

Every year I engage in the tedious experiment of trying to predict the draft. After about the 4th pick in the draft, it becomes obvious that reading the tea leaves of NFL organizations is nearly impossible. Nevertheless, I’m going to torture myself once again by trying to outsmart the brain trusts of general managers.

Here is a shameless plug to my consensus big board, compiled from 15 major big boards (ESPN, CBS, PFF, etc).

I’m mocking 4 trades to take place in the first round. None of these are blockbuster deals that involve multiple firsts and mortgaging the future – I’ll leave that to the actual GMs. Moving up or down a few spots would seem advantageous when one considers who is picking next and who is still available. The trades are as follows:

  1. (15) NE – (8) CAR
  2. (20) MIA – (14) MIN
  3. (26) CLE – (21) IND

ROUND 1

Round 1.1: Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson)

Biggest needs: QB, WR, OT

There is really nothing to say here. Lawrence is going to be the #1 pick and that’s about the only sure thing this year.

Round 1.2: New York Jets – Zach Wilson (QB, BYU)

Biggest needs: QB, iOL, CB

Another predictable selection. Barring a Tunsil-esque revelation on draft day, Zach Wilson will be the Jets new franchise quarterback.

Round 1.3: San Francisco 49ers – Trey Lance (QB, North Dakota State)

Biggest needs: QB, CB, iOL

This is really when the draft begins. The ‘9ers certainly traded up to #3 for a QB, but the jury is out which one. I don’t know what to believe anymore, but the betting markets (and Kyle Shanny) seem enamored by Mac Jones, but the organization seems to prefer Lance. I’m going with Lance because of his upside.

Round 1.4: Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts (TE, Florida)

The Falcons are going to have an extremely difficult time finding a trade partner willing to offer enough to move up from #15 (Pats), #19 (WTF), #20 (Bears). The only team I think has enough draft capital to reasonably make a move is Denver at #9. There’s a ton of rumors this week about the Falcons moving Julio this off-season. Pitts would be his replacement.

Round 1.5: Cincinnati Bengals – Ja’Marr Chase (WR, LSU)

Biggest needs: Everything except QB

I’m caving on this selection. After having Penei Sewell mocked in sharpie to the Bengals for the last 3 months, I’m switching to Ja’Marr Chase. There’s way too much talk about reuniting Burrow and Chase and rekindling their chemistry while winning a national championship together at LSU.

Round 1.6: Miami Dolphins – Penei Sewell (OT, Oregon)

Biggest needs: OL, EDGE

This is a nightmare scenario for the Dolphins, who moved back and up again to #6 praying for either Pitts or Chase to fall to them. Here’s a consolation prize: a franchise left tackle to pair with Austin Jackson.

Round 1.7: Detroit Lions – Jaylen Waddle (WR, Alabama)

Biggest needs: WR, LB, DB

Detroit lost their top two pass catchers this off-season. They replace one of them with Waddle AND collect some more draft capital in the process. Is Waddle the next Tyreek Hill? We know Goff isn’t Mahomes, but Detroit still has to give the guy some help on offense.

Round 1.8: TRADE FROM CAR to New England Patriots – Justin Fields (QB, OSU)

Biggest needs: QB, WR, S

The Patriots shock the world and actually move up in the draft…to select a QB of the future. After the free agent frenzy, the cupboard is pretty well stocked for the next few years. Unfortunately, it cost the Pats a lot of cap space, so finding a cheap option at QB is paramount.

Round 1.9: Denver Broncos – Micah Parsons (MLB, Penn State)

Biggest needs: QB, MLB, DT

After trading for Teddy Bridges, they address the other side of the ball.

Round 1.10: Dallas Cowboys – Jaycee Horn (CB, South Carolina)

Biggest needs: DB, DT, EDGE

The Cowboys need help at all levels of their defense. Horn has the perfect skill set and attitude for the Cowboys.

Round 1.11: New York Giants – DeVonta Smith (WR, Alabama)

Biggest needs: OT, EDGE, CB

The Giants are huge wildcards with this selection. They could go in several directions – WR, EDGE, CB, S, OL – but I’m going to guess the selection is Parsons if he is still available. Gettleman seems to like him a lot and it would fill a massive need. Unfortunately, he’s gone in this mock so they settle for plan B: DeVonta Smith.

Round 1.12: Philadelphia Eagles – Patrick Surtain II (CB, Alabama)

Biggest needs: WR, EDGE, CB

The Eagles traded back a month before the draft not knowing who would be available and have options. I can’t get a read on what they would do in this situation, but they can still get a decent WR at the top of the second round. I don’t know if this can be said about the CB class.

Round 1.13: Los Angeles Chargers – Rashawn Slater (OL, Northwestern)

Biggest needs: OT, EDGE, CB

The Chargers still need to fix their offensive line if they want to keep Herbert off the ground. The tackle position is especially weak with Trey Pipkins slotted as the starting LT.

Round 1.14: TRADE FROM MIN to Chicago Bears – Mac Jones (QB, Alabama)

Biggest needs: OL, CB, QB

The Vikings’ list of needs just keeps growing this off-season, especially after Jeff Gladney was arrested on a felony assault charge. In a year with so many needs, the Vikings are also missing a second round pick. I could see them moving back and dumping this pick, but I don’t know who makes sense to move up. In a rare inter-division trade, the Vikings get their 2nd rounder back while Chicago upgrades from Andy Dalton.

Round 1.15: TRADE FROM NE to Carolina Panthers – Christian Darrisaw (OT, Virginia Tech)

Biggest needs: OL, MLB, CB

The Panthers need to improve their line so Darnold doesn’t “see ghosts” as frequently.

Round 1.16: Arizona Cardinals – Alijah Vera-Tucker (iOL, USC)

Biggest needs: CB, RB, iOL

This is not an ideal situation for the Cardinals, who really need a CB to replace Patrick Peterson. With Surtain II and Horn off the board, they might consider trading back or dealing with it in the next round. Their O-Line isn’t bad, but they could use someone with the skill set of Vera-Tucker, who is a great fit at iOL. However, I don’t think they leave CB to chance and draft Farley, who would be a top-10 pick if he didn’t have a rash of recent injuries.

Round 1.17: Las Vegas Raiders – Teven Jenkins (OT, Oklahoma State)

Biggest needs: iOL, CB, LB

The Raiders just have so many needs, it’s just hard to predict what they are going to do. They lost 3/5 of their starting offensive line this off-season, so I would imagine they might want to do something about that.

Round 1.18: Miami Dolphins – Kwity Paye (EDGE, Michigan)

Biggest needs: OL, CB, DT

The Dolphins will draft a defender with this second selection and EDGE is a massive need. Paye is one of my favorite players in this draft, ESPN actually did an article about his life.

Round 1.19: Washington Football Team – Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Notre Dame)

Biggest needs: QB, OT, LB

The Washington Football team bolsters a defense that is already elite. Adding the versatile LB Owusu-Koramoah isn’t even fair. This dude can ball and embodies the trend of modern-day linebackers that have sideline-to-sideline speed and coverage skills.

Round 1.20: TRADE CHI to Minnesota Vikings – Jaelan Phillips (EDGE, Miami)

Biggest need: EDGE, CB, iOL

The pass rush of Minnesota has taken a major step backwards and Hunter’s future in Minnesota is questionable at best. This could end up being the steal of the draft if Phillips can stay healthy.

Round 1.21: TRADE FROM IND to Cleveland Browns – Caleb Farley (CB, Virginia Tech)

Biggest needs: EDGE, CB, DT

The Browns have 2 high-priority needs: EDGE and CB. Since they signed Clowney, CB becomes a higher priority need. If they stay put at #26, there’s a good chance that Newsome and Farley are gone, leaving them with the undersized Asante Samuel, Jr. Since the draft is in Cleveland this year, I expect them to do something interesting, so might as well part ways with an extra 3rd rounder and move up to address the cornerback need.

Round 1.22: Tennessee Titans – Rashod Bateman (WR, Minnesota)

Biggest needs: CB, WR, OT

The Titans don’t have many needs, but CB and WR are the weakest links and they should be strongly considering CB Greg Newsome II or WR Rashod Bateman. With Newsome gone one selection earlier, it makes the decision much easier. The Titans lost 3 of their top-5 receivers this off-season: Corey Davis (984 yards), Jonnu Smith (448 yards) and Adam Humphries (228 yards). A.J. Brown needs some help and Bateman would be a welcome sight.

Round 1.23: New York Jets – Greg Newsome II (CB, Northwestern)

Biggest needs: iOL, CB, EDGE

After the Zach Wilson pick, this one has defense written all over it. They hired former SF Defensive Coordinator Salah as their new Head Coach. The pass defense is absolutely abysmal and Newsome would be a huge upgrade.

Round 1.24: Pittsburgh Steelers – Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)

Biggest needs: OL, RB, CB

The Steelers have been rumored to be targeting a running back in the first two rounds. While this feels like an overpay, Harris seems to have won over the Steelers coaching staff as the preferred running back. There isn’t an OT worth taking here, so I would be shocked if Harris isn’t the selection here.

Round 1.25: Jacksonville Jaguars – Christian Barmore (DT, Alabama)

Biggest needs: WR, OT, S

The Jags never really replaced Calais Campbell and have the luxury of drafting BPA here. They should also be considering Trevon Moehrig, but we’ll see if they want to invest in the secondary.

Round 1.26: TRADE FROM CLE to Indianapolis Colts – Azeez Ojulari (EDGE, Georgia)

Biggest needs: OL, EDGE

The Colts have to choose between Ojulari, who shouldn’t even still be available and Cosmi to protect their investment at QB. It wouldn’t surprise me if they traded back up in the second to get a franchise left tackle, but they won’t pass up on the pure speed rusher at #26.

Round 1.27: Baltimore Ravens – Zaven Collins (LB, Tulsa)

Biggest needs: WR, OL, EDGE

The Ravens get a gift with another first round selection. They promptly turn that selection into a player that has the attitude and fit for the Ravens defense. Collins may be a “small school” prospect, but there’s nothing small about this man. At 270 lbs, he was a versatile piece at Tulsa – excelling at run stopping, coverage and pass rushing.

Round 1.28: New Orleans Saints – Trevon Moehrig (S, TCU)

Biggest needs: WR, CB

The Saints have Marcus Williams under the franchise tag and some serious salary cap concerns going forward. Moehrig would be a complementary piece this year and a potential replacement next year.

Round 1.29: Green Bay Packers – Kadarius Toney (WR, Florida)

Biggest needs: CB, WR

The Packers really only have 2 big needs: CB and WR. Even though they signed Kevin King, they are still looking for someone to pair with Jaire Alexander. While Asante Samuel Jr. would be appealing here, they need to finally give Rodgers some help. Toney has video game moves for a receiver, he would be a welcome sight on offence.

Round 1.30: Buffalo Bills – Gregory Rousseau (EDGE, Miami)

Biggest needs: OL, EDGE, RB

Hughes and Addison are getting older and there’s really no downside to having a pass rush depth. This is a great situation because Rousseau hasn’t played football in over a year and easing him into the defense would be great for both parties.

Round 1.31: Baltimore Ravens – Terrace Marshall (WR, LSU)

Biggest needs: OL, EDGE

Terrace Marshall is a bigger WR (6’3″) with a great catch radius and can make contested plays on the ball. In other words, everything the Ravens need. This is a slam dunk pick if he is still available.

Round 1.32: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jayson Oweh (EDGE, Penn State)

Biggest needs: DT, EDGE

The Bucs don’t really need anything right now, but they could always use a future replacement for JPP.

Playoff Primer Part 2/2 (Regular Season Success)

Happy NHL Playoffs Eve!

If you haven’t checked out part 1 of the primer, you’re missing out on an exploration of NHL home ice advantage in the regular season v. playoffs. In part 2, I’m going to be exploring the relationship between regular season success and playoff success across the NHL, NBA and NFL. In other words, how much “parity” do we see between the playoffs and regular season? In this case, what I mean by “parity” is the relationship between regular season and playoff success. I capture this phenomenon by looking at the average regular season winning% of playoff teams in the NFL, NBA and NHL (data courtesy of hockey, baseball and football reference):

Average Regular Season Winning% of Playoff Teams

What does this mean? Since the NFL only has 12 total playoff teams compared to the 16 of the NBA and NHL, it is to be expected that the average NFL playoff team is well above average. However, when we compare the NHL and NBA over the past 18 years, the average NBA playoff team tended to be better than the average NHL playoff team – until 2012. This trend shifted quite drastically in 2012, with the average NHL playoff team outperforming the average NBA playoff team in the regular season.

What if we limit our scope from all playoff teams to the regular season winning% of conference finalists (the final-4):

Regular Season Winning% of Final-4

While the NFL still reigns supreme with the highest average regular season winning% of their Conference Championship participants, they did fall below average twice in the past 18 years (2008 and 2010). Just to refresh your memory, the 2008 NFL NFC Championship featured the 9-6-1 Philadelphia Eagles and 9-7 Arizona Cardinals. That year, the final-4 boasted a combined 65% winning percentage, lowest in the league’s past 18 years, but still more than the average NHL Conference Finals team. Speaking of which, the NHL was below average (and at the bottom of the list) every season except 2012. This featured the (somewhat) anti-climatic Conference Finals that included two #1 seeds (Pittsburgh and Chicago), the 4th best team in the league (Boston) and Los Angeles. In other words, the NHL appears to have the most unpredictable outcomes in the playoffs of these three leagues. But wait there’s more…It’s time for the main event: The difference between regular season winning% of the average final-4 team relative to the average playoff team.

Difference Between Regular Season Winning% of Final-4 and Average Playoff Team

The impact of this chart is to identify the “parity” within each of the leagues by calculating the difference in regular season winning% of final-4 teams to their respective leagues’ average winning% of all playoff teams. There’s a few conclusions that we can draw from this chart: (1) The NBA is the most predictable sport in this regard. This should come as no surprise to anyone that follows basketball – the best teams seem to almost always advance to the conference finals, with 2 notable exceptions: 2006 and 2009. In 2006, while Detroit and Cleveland occupied the top-2 seeds in the East, there was a major shocker out west with the 8th seeded Warriors upsetting the Mavs in the first round. Something similar happened in 2009, with the top-seeded Cavs upset in the second round by Boston and the 2nd-seeded Mav’s getting dunked on (pun intended) by the Spurs in the first round. While a couple of 1/2/3 seeds being upset isn’t really that exciting for the NHL or NFL, for the NBA it’s the only evidence of relative unpredictability that we have. (2) The NHL has the most unpredictability in the playoffs of any sport. It is rare (like 2012) that successful regular season teams advance to the conference championship. On four different occasions (2009, 2011, 2013 and 2016), the average final-4 team was actually worse than the average NHL playoff team. The only other league to accomplish this feat was the NFL, who holds the record for most chaotic playoff of the past 18 years in 2008. (3) Speaking of the NFL, there’s a lot more variation than other sports, , which is a product of a single-elimination playoff format.

In sum: The NHL and NBA are more predictable (for very different reasons). The regular season is less predictive of a deep playoff run in the NHL and more so for the NBA. Whereas, the NFL is just a total crap shoot year-to-year. With 24 teams in the NHL Playoffs this year, we should actually expect some chaos based on what we’ve seen in previous seasons.

Playoff Primer Part 1/2 (Home Ice Advantage)

Welcome to Stanley Cup Playoffs Week!

Beginning on Saturday, August 1 at 12:00 PM EST, the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes kick off the insanity of this year’s COVID Olympics, also known as the Stanley Cup Playoffs. All games are being played at Rogers Place (Edmonton) and Scotiabank Place (Toronto), with Western teams playing at the former and Eastern teams at the latter. That means that only two teams will actually enjoy all the luxuries of “home ice advantage” – Toronto and Edmonton. The rules regarding home ice advantage will remain the same as any other season, with the higher seed afforded the benefits of “home ice advantage” in 4 games of the best-of-7 series (3 of the 5 in the first round).

These benefits include:
(1) Last change – The home team makes player substitutions after the visiting team between stoppages of play
(2) Faceoffs – The centre from the visiting team must put their stick on the ice first
(3) Rink familiarity

Continue reading “Playoff Primer Part 1/2 (Home Ice Advantage)”

Annual Rate Charts (Introduction)

I debuted the Annual Rate Charts (ARCs) on twitter over a month ago and since I’m unleashing the Tableau to the public, I wanted to ensure proper documentation was available.

You can find the link to the interactive Tableau Charts HERE!

What are Annual Rates Charts?

Annual Rate Charts (ARCs) are a way to measure the production and expected production of a player relative to their time on the ice. Production is quantified using the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and Expected Goals Above Replacement (xGAR) models from Evolving-Hockey. If you want an in-depth analysis of how GAR is calculated, documentation is available here. In short, GAR is a single number that captures the contribution of that player in different game situations. GAR is subdivided into several categories, including even strength offense & defense, power play, penalty kill, takeaways and faceoffs. The number for each player represents the number of goals more (positive) or less (negative) that a player contributions relative to a replacement-level player (by position).

Expected GAR (xGAR) is also a single number assigned to each player, which is calculated based on the on-ice performance of a player (including rates, quality, shooting and goaltending). This number is the expected number of goals more or less above replacement-level that the player should contribute, based on their on-ice actions. In other words, xGAR represents the performance of a player, while GAR represents the results of that performance. When I tested the relationship between these values, I find that xGAR captures approximately 86% of the variation in GAR, which is quite substantial for a model including human subjects.

Annual Rate Charts (ARCs) can be differentiated from many other publicly available visualizations using GAR and xGAR data as it is relative to the amount of time a player is on the ice. These rates can be differentiated from many other popular visualizations that  display GAR data in aggregate form. There are strengths and weaknesses to both rate and aggregate data, but both are useful in their own way.

Continue reading “Annual Rate Charts (Introduction)”

NFL 2020-21 Predictions (as of May 10, 2020)

If you haven’t heard, the NFL dropped its schedule on Thursday, May 7th. Using the fantastic site playoff predictors, you can predict the outcome of EVERY. SINGLE. GAME. That’s exactly what I did. I won’t display the weekly results, but I will provide my predicted record for each team, based on nothing more than my gut.

AFC

# AFC North 2020-21 Record 2019-20 Record
2 Ravens 11-5 14-2
6 Steelers 9-7 8-8
7 Browns 9-7 6-10
14 Bengals 5-11 2-14

The Ravens are bound to regress from last years’ historic season. The retirement of perennial pro-bowl guard Yanda will reverberate throughout the rushing and passing game. It won’t help that the rest of the division should improve as well. Every team in the AFCN seemingly improved this offseason, so the Ravens might not get as many “free wins” in the division this year.

Continue reading “NFL 2020-21 Predictions (as of May 10, 2020)”

Episode 19: Top-Heavy Lineups

Which teams are top-heavy and rely on a few forwards to generate offense? Which teams have more balanced scoring throughout their lineup? Are balanced teams more successful than top-heavy teams? Find out the answers to these questions on this episode of Ice Analytics. I will be joined by Jon from The Oil Country Podcast to get his thoughts on the Oilers, the most top-heavy team in consecutive seasons.

Continue reading “Episode 19: Top-Heavy Lineups”

Episode 18: Hits and Penalties

What is the relationship between hitting and penalties? Do players and teams that hit more often receive more penalties? Find out the answers to these questions on this episode of Ice Analytics. I will be joined by TJ and The Grumpy Old Man from the Never Say Die Podcast to talk about the Islanders, the most disciplined and physical team in the league.

Continue reading “Episode 18: Hits and Penalties”