I was blessed with an opportunity to join The Hockey Podcast Network to do an original content podcast on NHL Analytics. Episodes of the Ice Analytics Podcast will be released every Friday beginning on December 27. This podcast will posit one NHL-related question each week and explore the answer using the available data. I will also be joined by a guest from the hockey or statistics community to get an insider prospective on these topics. Show notes, including data sources and visualizations, will be available on StatsEnforcer.com
I hope you find these topics to be as informative as I do!
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Following up from the previous post here, which examined the best (and worst) GAR performers in each game situation, this article will examine defensemen value relative to cap hit. For more information on how GAR is calculated, please check out the introduction. Before delving into the nuances of player value, I present an illustration of the cap hit and GAR of all defensemen:
Continue reading “GAR and Cap (2018-2019): Defensemen (cont.)”
The first positional group of interest is defensemen, who will be presented in the three different game situations (Even Strength, Power Play and Short Handed). Before diving into the GAR values for individual defensemen, be sure to check out the introduction, which outlines the process for data collection and team-aggregate values. The following charts illustrate the GAR of defensemen in different game situations and time-on-ice:
Continue reading “GAR and Cap (2018-2019): Defensemen”
Welcome to this years’ installment of the annual evaluation of NHL contracts. Using Goals Above Replacement (GAR) values provided by Evolving-Hockey and cap hit numbers from CapFriendly, the purpose of this article is to determine which players performed above or below their contractual expectations.
Continue reading “GAR and Cap (2018-2019): Introduction”
In a strange twist, rather than try to guess the selection (and be wrong most of the time), I am going to look at the potential available options for each team.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Option A: Kyler Murray, QB (OU)
Option B: Quinnen Williams, DT (Alabama)
Option C: Trade Down
After months of drama and speculation, this has got to be the biggest smokescreens (or non-smokescreens) in recent history. The Cardinals have so many holes in their roster that they should trade this pick to accumulate a collection of riches, but probably won’t. If they are able to trade Rosen for a late first/early second, while also acquiring their franchise QB, then this is as good as it gets. This is a matter of fit more than any other single factor. Even if Murray is objectively only slightly better than Rosen in a vacuum, the NFL isn’t a vacuum.
Continue reading “[NFL Draft 2019] Last-Minute Mock Draft”
I apologize in advance that I am even covering this whole spectacle. Anyone living in/near the GTA is probably exhausted from all the speculation surrounding William Nylander. All that being said, I wanted to present the situation in an objective fashion with certain conditions that can be logically understood. It should be noted that I am not arguing that the Leafs trade Nylander, but merely presenting a thought experiment based on two factors: (1) age and (2) AAV.
Continue reading “Objective Thoughts Concerning Nylander”
The grand finale!
I hope you all enjoyed reading these articles as much as I enjoyed writing them. Feel free to check out the first part (forwards) and second part (defensemen). For a refresher on the GAR metric, please refer to the first part of the series.
Continue reading “GAR and Cap Hits (Part 3 of 3)”
Following up from part one of the series, part two of the ‘GAR and Cap Hits’ series will analyze the value of defensemen so far in 2018-2019. For a refresher on the GAR metric, please refer to the first part of the series.
Continue reading “GAR and Cap Hits (Part 2 of 3)”
After a long hiatus of not writing anything (since the NFL Draft), I’ve been inspired to put together some thoughts on the valuation of NHL players. I am a huge proponent of GAR (goals above replacement) and WAR (wins above replacement) as a metric for player valuation.
Continue reading “GAR and Cap Hits (Part 1 of 3)”
- Cleveland Browns: Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
Maybe he is the next Russell Wilson…or the next Johnny Manziel. On second thought, the comparison between the two is the epitome of laziness for sports writers and analysts. Sure they both have an attitude and have displayed emotion in a negative light, but Manziel was an overall train wreck off the field and a good athlete on the field. I feel the desire to defend this pick against all the jersey burning haters out there. Let me introduce the QBASE projections, which looks at collegiate production (completion percentage, yards per attempt and passing efficiency) relative to the quality of the defenses faced and offensive teammates around them. QBASE projects NFL success in the first 3-5 years after entering the league. Here is the breakdown of the top QB options for the Browns:
Continue reading “2018 NFL Round 1 Draft Analysis”